Sustainable water management: Water demand forecasting for a thirstier future
March 04, 2026
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Sustainable water management is critical in a changing climate. South Australia is using a new tool for water forecasting to plan for the future.
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South Australia is the driest state on the driest inhabited continent on Earth—and it’s only getting drier.
By 2050, average annual rainfall could drop by up to 23 per cent. Temperatures are rising, and the population is set to grow by 28 per cent by 2051. These shifts are placing increasing pressure on the state’s water resources.
If we want a more resilient future, we must focus on sustainable water management. But as climate patterns become harder to predict, traditional methods of water demand forecasting fall short. We need smarter ways to plan—so we can invest in the right infrastructure and protect vital water systems for people, nature, and the economy.
In South Australia, a new statewide forecasting platform can help. It is strengthening the foundation for sustainable, long-term water management. Drawing on multiple data sources, it models a range of plausible futures—ones that account for changing populations, climates, and geographies—to support more confident investment in resilient, flexible water infrastructure.
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South Australia’s new forecasting platform underpins sustainable, long‑term water management.
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Why sustainable water management is more critical than ever
Water is one of our most valuable resources. But climate change is making it harder to predict how much water we’ll have in the future and how much we’ll need.
In South Australia, the average temperature has risen by more than 1°C over the past 50 years. In Adelaide, the number of days over 40°C has tripled. At the same time, rainfall is dropping—hitting key agricultural regions particularly hard. These trends are likely to continue, with storms and droughts expected to become more common.
And that makes water demand forecasting so important for sustainable water management. It helps governments and utilities decide where to build or upgrade infrastructure. It also supports planning for stormwater, wastewater, water reuse, and drought. Forecasting aligns investment with actual need—avoiding water shortages and costly overspending.
It’s not just about people. Agriculture, mining, and energy—key parts of South Australia’s economy—depend on secure water supplies. Native plants and animals also need access to water to survive and thrive.
Both surface water and groundwater must be managed carefully to protect quality and supply. But forecasting is becoming harder. Traditional models rely on past patterns, but in a changing climate, we can’t depend on historic data. We need tools that can manage the uncertainty we face.
Water demand forecasting at a statewide scale
It’s complex to forecast water demand across South Australia. Regional population density varies widely. Climate change adds more pressure by altering streamflow, evaporation, and groundwater recharge.
At the same time, water demand is shifting. Population growth and land use change affect where and how much water is needed. Forecasting must also include all sources—surface water, groundwater, desalination, recycled water, and rainwater.
" }Water is one of our most valuable resources. But climate change is making it harder to predict how much water we’ll have in the future and how much we’ll need.
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SA Water must take this all into account. The utility manages one of the country’s most complex water networks. Its service area stretches from the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands in the far north to Mount Gambier in the south east. Forecasts help guide infrastructure planning and stormwater and wastewater management for the entire state.
Until recently, forecasting was still manual. Different regions used different models. Data was entered by hand from many sources—including climate records that are less reliable in today’s conditions.
To improve this, SA Water needed a new approach to water demand forecasting. It needed one platform that could bring data together, forecast different futures, and support better decisions across the state.
Building a smarter forecasting platform for more sustainable water management
To plan for a more uncertain future, our team helped build a new demand forecasting platform for South Australia.
The platform replaced SA Water’s manual workflows with a single digital system. It acts as the shared source of truth for forecasting across the state.
It allows users to test different futures. Climate change, population growth, and customer behaviour can all be modelled to show how demand might shift. The platform supports planning at every level—from small modelling zones to the entire state.
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SA Water manages one of Australia’s most complex statewide water networks, reaching places like Hawker near the Flinders Ranges.
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One of its most useful features is the ability to measure uncertainty. Instead of showing one possible outcome, the platform produces a range of demand forecasts. This helps planners prepare for many scenarios and make more confident decisions.
It also combines historical climate data with future projections; this includes RCP-adjusted scenarios out to 2090. That gives SA Water a stronger foundation for long-term, sustainable water management.
Sustainable water management for an uncertain future
South Australia’s climate is changing—and so is the way we plan for the future of water.
More uncertainty means we need better, more flexible tools. Water demand forecasting can no longer rely on past trends to predict what comes next. It’s about preparing for multiple futures—so we can respond with confidence, whatever comes.
SA Water’s demand forecasting platform provides a stronger foundation for long-term water planning. And it offers a model that could support other regions facing similar challenges.
Sustainable water management isn’t optional—it’s the foundation of climate resilience.
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